2012 Minnesota Twins Preview

Team MVP: Joe Mauer

Mauer simply cannot stay healthy. I don’t know if it will take a lot more DH time or some time at 1B/3B to spell him from having to catch, but he likely won’t last the full season behind the plate. The “Well played, Mauer,” punchline has turned into “Please play, Mauer,” amongst baseball fans, especially those in Minnesota and those who own him in fantasy. The decline is a mix of having the insane 2009 season in recent memory and health problems. He was never going to match the power production in 2009, and now that he is oft-injured, the other production has declined steadily. Mauer slugged .368 in 2011 with a .081 ISO, compared to a .471 career average in slugging and .148 ISO. Mauer was on track to be a surefire hall of fame player only a couple of years ago, and now he is fighting to stay in the lineup (not due to talent, but due to health). If he can play even 130 games this season, I think he could crack double digit home runs and hit over .300… he is still a supreme talent. It would be refreshing to see him being an incredibly tough out again, as we didn’t get that luxury from Mauer in 2011.

Team Cy Young: Scott Baker

Always been a fan of Scott Baker. To a fault, almost, through his injuries and not great ERAs. He was injured in 2011, but for the time he pitched, it was the best year of his career. He posted career bests of 8.22 Ks/9, 3.14 ERA, and a 3.61 xFIP. I can’t put any faith in Franisco Liriano at this point, as much as I fully wanted to for awhile, and Baker is overlooked and actually pretty darn good.

Fresh face with impact: Josh Willingham

First of all, he is THE slugging in this lineup as of opening day. Until Justin Morneau proves he has anything left, and maybe even if he does, Willingham is their best power hitter. He hit 29 home runs last year while playing in Oakland (15 of which were at home), a rather overlooked feat. He will hit 25 homers in Minnesota this year, and probably get hurt and miss some time. Whenever Morneau struggles or goes down, Willingham will be hitting cleanup behind Mauer. And whenever Mauer is hurt, who knows what the hell will happen?

Impact Prospect: Levi Michael

He was the Twins’ 2011 first round pick, but I think he may be closer to the majors than Miguel Sano is in the Twins’ system. Michael is still young, 21 throughout this season, despite having a great career at North Carolina. He left high school and skipped his senior baseball season to enroll early at North Carolina, then proceeded to tear the ACC up throughout his career. He is versatile, playing 2B, 3B, and SS in college, and basically a good contact switch-hitter, with power for a lot of doubles and speed for 20 steals. He has always screamed ‘Brian Roberts’ to me when I see him play, and I think his skillset and pedigree has him closer to the majors than a lot of Twins position prospects.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Liam Hendricks

Although a prospect, I put Hendricks here because he is one injury away from being in the Twins’ rotation. He doesn’t throw hard, but will look to induce ground balls and command the strike zone, even though he doesn’t post high strikeout numbers. The Twins probably planned to have Kyle Gibson as next-in-line, but after Gibson required Tommy John, Hendricks got a short stint last season and I think he will see time in the rotation again this year.

Biggest Concern: Health of Mauer/Morneau

Their health issues are well-documented, and downright fishy/scary when you consider Mauer’s inability to regain health and Morneau’s concussion scare being an ongoing thing. These  former AL MVPs here, and a short time ago had the entire twins organization firmly planted on their back to be carried. We see how much the Twins struggle without their production, and if that is the case again this year, it will be another long season (and a long Mauer contract) for Minnesota.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Denard Span

2B – Alexi Casilla

C – Joe Mauer

1B – Justin Morneau

RF – Josh Willingham

DH – Ryan Doumit

3B – Danny Valencia

LF – Ben Revere

SS – Jamey Carroll

2012 Kansas City Royals Preview

Team MVP: Eric Hosmer

I never knew much about Hosmer. I remembered him being drafted, but I didn’t follow the draft then as closely as I do now. When it was very clear that he was going to be coming up in 2011, he became the hot topic in every prospect/fantasy/scouting chat prior to and during the 2011 season. I recall a few scouts pretty clearly saying, “You must not remember how hyped he was coming out of high school. He was hyped as much as any high school hitter recently, save Bryce Harper.”

This opened my eyes a little, and made me more excited about Hosmer. It turns out the hype was well-earned. He has fared far better than the two bats drafted ahead of him (Beckham, Alvarez) and more than held his own at the plate in 2011.  Now, the same tune continues from scouts and projections… this kid will rake, average will hover around .300+ every year of his prime, and there’s not much bad to say. One sad point for him: He can be elite and still struggle to make an all-star team based on competition in the A.L.

Team Cy Young: Felipe Paulino

I never, ever thought I would type that string of words. Part of the reason I had to? The Royals’ staff is incredibly underwhelming. I always liked Jonathan Sanchez, but I don’t like him moving to that park in the American League and still walking way too many guys. I chose Paulino because his xFIP (3.73) was way better than his ERA (4.46), and hopefully his two most common pitches, four seam (one of the harder throwing starters in baseball, averaging 95 mph) and slider, can produce results.

I understand this whole youth movement injecting enthusiasm into the Royals for the first time in recent memory, but sprinkling any sort of pitching into that recipe is a dire need. Duffy, Montgomery, and Lamb… one lefty has to stick, right? (For the record, I like Jake Odorizzi as the guy who will keep getting it done despite less hype than most prospects… Jordan Zimmermann-ish)

Fresh face with impact: Jonathan Sanchez

I wrote this about Sanchez last year (in my Giants’ preview as a possible breakout candidate).

Don’t watch him pitch.  No, I’m serious, don’t.  He will drive you nuts in a Dice-K-ian, “Throw a fastball down the middle, for a strike, right now, you idiot…” kind of way… But it is all there.  The trends, the stuff… and the pull your hair out 3-1 counts to 8-hitters when it seems like he has no idea where the next pitch is going…

Sanchez walked 5.86 guys per 9 innings last season. Ya know, in hindsight, maybe it’s not all effing there?

He is a fresh face. They need him to be good, because they need pitching. He is also, oftentimes, positively infuriating.

Impact Prospect: Wil Myers

Loved him coming out of high school, figured he wouldn’t end up catching, and his bat progressing faster than some thought confirmed that. He is incredibly athletic, and may have been the only guy to outperform Bryce Harper in the Arizona Fall League (he raked, to the tune of .360). He takes his walks (10.1 BB% over his career), and with Myers waiting in the minors, I don’t think the Royals are keeping Jeff Francoeur long term. He is the forgotten prospect out of Hosmer, Moustakas, and Myers, and has now been overshadowed by Bubba Starling being drafted… but I think Myers will hit at every level and have a good career. As an off the top of my head comparison, he seems like a Hunter-Pence-ish good athlete who will play hard and hit, hit, hit.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Greg Holland

The Joakim Soria injury makes Holland the pick. Holland struck out 11.10 per 9 last year out of the bullpen, and seems to be your typical great fastball, great slider, shut down reliever. As a RHP, he struck out an impressive 36% of the lefties he faced. He almost has to close now, right? I have a strange feeling the Royals will give Jonathan Broxton first dibs at the spot, but we will see.

Biggest Concern: Staying the course

I see the athleticism, but the jury is still very, very much out for me on Bubba Starling. He’s far away from the majors. But they do have good prospects. They have locked up Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar long term. Alex Gordon has come along incredibly well. All of the good things are seeming to fall in place, but there is still something missing in the form of impact pitchers. There will continue to be hype, hope, and before too long, expectations, for this younger bunch.

Projected Lineup:

LF – Alex Gordon

CF – Lorenzo Cain

1B – Eric Hosmer

DH – Billy Butler

3B – Mike Moustakas

RF – Jeff Francoeur

C – Brayan Pena (Salvador Perez when he returns)

2B – Johnny Giavotella

SS – Alcides Escobar

2012 Detroit Tigers Preview

Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Miggy had what was likely the best season of his career in 2011, he is in the prime of his great career, and it’s easy to forget that he isn’t going to be thirty until April, 2013.

Walk rates each year since 2008: 8.2%, 9.9%, 13.7%, 15.7%

Strikeout rates for that time frame: 18.4%, 15.6%, 14.7%, 12.9%

A graph of Miggy’s K% trends over his career. Again, credit to Fangraphs. This stuff is awesome.

credit to http://www.fangraphs.com

108 walks to 89 strikeouts, Miggy’s numbers in 2011, is entering ridiculous mode. Although it’s crowded at the top (Braun, Bautista), Cabrera is certainly one of, if not the, best right handed hitters in the game.

The downside? Defense. Which really may become an issue for the Tigers. I saw Miguel Cabrera a couple of years ago during spring, and the man is just monstrous. The type of guy that, when you look at him, you automatically know he’s 1B or DH and just crushes the ball. He’s not fit to play third. I don’t think he has the range, the hands, or the arm to be anything but bad at third base. He was bad at the hot corner when he played it as a younger player, in better shape. He was bad defensively at first base, and a move to third certainly won’t cure that. Maybe it will force him to focus more on his defense and up the ante a tad. But… probably not.

I could go on and on, very easily, about how great Cabrera is/has been, but it’s painfully obvious from the numbers or simply watching him play. Let’s hope the defensive value doesn’t affect how he hits.

Team Cy Young: Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is, in fact, all that and a bag of chips. I fully expect more of the same from Verlander this year… not necessarily a repeat MVP, but a simply dominant season. It’s really an unfair combination of a guy having naturally ridiculous stuff paired with recognizing how great he can be and only wanting to improve upon that.

Righties hit over 40 points higher against Verlander compared to how lefties fared. The reason I’m not worried? Righties hit .215, Lefties hit .172…

The Tigers’ MVP and Cy Young combined were the easiest choices and probably the best tandem on one team in the majors.

Fresh face with impact: Prince Fielder

Well… yeah. The tigers pretty much shocked everybody in baseball, even those with great sources, when they landed Fielder. He joins Miguel Cabrera to form the best 3-4 in the major leagues (he was probably in that pairing a year ago, too, with Ryan Braun). He walked more than he struck out in 2011 for the first time in his career, and while he will never be the hitter for average that Miggy is, he knows his role (crush the damn baseball), and does it well.

Impact Prospect: Jacob Turner

Another one that I have owned and thus followed closely in random, prospect-driven dynasty leagues, I (like the Tigers) was not terribly excited to hear any news involving Jacob Turner and his shoulder. I don’t think Turner has ace potential, but I think he has solid #2 or #3 for a long time potential. He may perform well, but will never be the lights out, dominant starter that a true ace is. If the shoulder is fine, he will get thrown into the fire and be counted on throughout 2012.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Brennan Boesch

If you have ever played fantasy baseball, you have probably owned, dropped, loved, and hated Brennan Boesch. For starters, I think he has the right field job, hits in the top of the lineup, and runs with it. He will have good counting stats, hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder helps that, and is pretty much a pull-power left handed hitter. I think he can hit 25 home runs if he plays a full season.

Biggest Concern: Defense

The concerns for this organization, obviously, are winning the World Series. Two MVP caliber players already and adding a third tends to do that. So, on a smaller scale, I am interested to see how they handle Miguel Cabrera if he struggles tremendously with third base. Considering the fact that Victor Martinez isn’t filling up the DH spot and Delmon Young isn’t exactly all-world, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cabrera DH and Inge play 3B before too long. We shall see. The Tigers are going to be very good.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Austin Jackson

RF – Brennan Boesch

3B – Miguel Cabrera

1B – Prince Fielder

DH – Delmon Young

C – Alex Avila

SS – Jhonny Peralta

LF – Andy Dirks

2B – Ryan Raburn

2012 Cleveland Indians Preview

Team MVP: Carlos Santana

I happen to love 25 year old switch-hitting catchers with easy, easy power and good plate discipline. I have a feeling I am not alone. Santana was 7th in the league in 2011 in BB% (14.7%), and had 27 home runs with a .217 ISO, which trailed only Mike Napoli for the lead among catchers. The great BB% has been there throughout his entire career, and I think his K% spike comes back down to normal. The increased K% and low BABIP contributed to the .239 average. He is much better against lefties (.318 avg, 11.6 K%) than righties (.201 avg, 24.4 K%), which is worrisome, but I think he hits for real power, and continues to split some time between C and 1B.

Team Cy Young: Justin Masterson

I have never been crazy about Masterson, but he sure did prove a lot in 2011. The 3.21 ERA may have been helped by a 6.3% HR/FB% when you notice the 3.64 xFIP, but unless Ubaldo Jimenez does (another) complete 180, Masterson is the go-to. He murders right handed hitters, a nice quality to have, to the tune of 8.38 Ks/9 and a .209 BAA (compared to 5.13 Ks/9 and a .283 BAA versus lefties).

The largest inning-load of his life may have caught up to him a tad, posting a (5.65 ERA) in Sept/Oct… worth noting, but hopefully no reason to worry.

Fresh face with impact: Derek Lowe

He will need help from the defense in a big way, because big strikeout numbers simply aren’t what Mr. Lowe is about, but I don’t think he has deteriorated so much that we should expect another over 5.00 ERA season. He is a veteran guy, and a proud guy, who seemed genuinely upset and disgusted with how he pitched a year ago in Atlanta. He will basically throw sinkers and sliders to induce ground balls, and as long as he stays healthy, he should give them 200 innings. Hopefully the quality of those innings improves somewhat.

Impact Prospect: Nick Hagadone

I loved Hagadone when he was with the Sox (and Indians), had him in my ‘fantasy farm system’ in one league, and then he required Tommy John. He has control issues (4.91 BBs/9 through his career) coupled with strikeout ability (9.00 Ks/9 over his career). It was news to me, but apparently he is permanently bullpen-bound and, with control honed in, could be a solid lefty specialist.

Francisco Lindor is the star in the system, but high school drafted shortstops usually take awhile to get to the majors, no matter how advanced they are.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Jason Kipnis

He may not be a sleeper to some, but 15 and 15 from a second baseman could be special. He will play every single day at 2nd and could hit 20 homers. I think most people have it drilled into their mind that Dustin Ackley is the best new thing at second base in the AL, and while I agree, Kipnis may not be terribly far behind. I think Ackley is better defensively and a better pure hitter (better approach, looks more smooth), which makes a difference, but ZIPS projects them to have similar offensive numbers.

Biggest Concern: Contending

The division is wide open outside of the Tigers (who are the favorites by a whole helluva lot), and even if they may not have a shot at that second wild card spot, finishing 2nd in the division again and hopefully (eh) making the Tigers a bit nervous is the goal. They’re certainly not awful, but even with that, they finished 15 games back in 2011.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Michael Brantley

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera

RF – Shin-Soo Choo

C – Carlos Santana

DH – Travis Hafner

1B – Casey Kotchman

2B – Jason Kipnis

LF – Aaron Cunningham/Shelley Duncan

3B – Lonnie Chisenhall

2012 Chicago White Sox Preview

Team MVP: Alexei Ramirez

Great defensively, solid offensively, Ramirez is a great shortstop who never seems to get the love that many shortstops do. He led the majors in shortstop UZR a year ago, and is a good bet for 15-20 homers and double digit steals. He could very easily be a perennial +4 win player, and might be one of the most overlooked guys that falls into that category. He is simply their best player, with a tip of the cap and much respect to the ever-producing Paul Konerko.

Team Cy Young: John Danks

This rotation (Danks, Gavin Floyd, Phil Humber, Jake Peavy) seems to be filled with guys who are good but not great. Guys who the Red Sox / Yankees / etc would love to have as their 4th and 5th guys in the rotation, but aren’t necessarily fit to carry a rotation. Danks’ strikeouts and walks have been trending in the proper respective directions from 2009-2011.  He had a streaky year in 2011, posting a 6.89 ERA in May, 1.14 in June, 0.69 in July, and then an appalling 7.76 in Sept/Oct. He has completely stopped throwing his slider (which he threw 20% of the time in 2009) and heavily increased his cut-fastball throwing, up to 25.6% in 2011, compared to 0.8% in 2009.

This is a graph displaying Danks’ ERA over the course of last season. MLB average ERA shown in red.

Credit to Fangraphs for the great work they do on the graph.

Credit to http://www.fangraphs.com

Fresh face with impact: Simon Castro

It was Castro of Kosuke Fukudome for this pick, and I chose the one with possible upside. Castro was acquired after a hideous 2011 (10.17 ERA at the AAA level) from the Padres organization for Carlos Quentin. The White Sox are hoping he can bounce back and return to the decent form he possessed in 2010 at the AA level (2.92 ERA, 7.9 Ks/9), but the scary thing is, he struggled in AAA (7.84 ERA) in 2010, as well. The struggles at AAA could boil down to not having great command or control of his pitches. His BB/9 in 2011 jumped up to 6.31 per 9 at AAA, compared to 1.61 per 9 at AA. Sadly, this is one of the best arms in Chicago’s system…

Impact Prospect: Addison Reed

Reed, a young man armed with a filthy slider and destined for the 9th inning of games, breezed through the minor leagues, going through A, High A, AA, AAA, and even a stint with the major league club, all in the 2011 season… and did not disappoint at any level.  He posted over 11Ks/9 at every level, and will be in the back of the bullpen from day one in 2012, challenging Matt Thornton throughout spring for the closer job. Reed has a chance to be great, but it does not bode well for the White Sox farm system to see their #1 prospect destined for being a closer.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Chris Sale

I wanted to go with Adam Dunn here, because I don’t believe he can be as utterly pitiful as he was in 2011 and everyone has written him off completely, but the White Sox are taking their great lefty arm and giving him every chance to succeed as a starter. Sale struck out 10 per 9 in 2011 in relief, using a blazing fastball (averaging 95.3 mph so far in his career), a two seamer at 94.2 mph on average, a slider, and a change up. I have liked Sale since he was drafted, was never sure if he would stick as a starter, and am excited to see the result this season. He is the best arm in the rotation, if not yet the best starting pitcher.

Biggest Concern: The Farm

The White Sox have the worst farm system in baseball, and it isn’t as if Kenny Williams has the excuse of having a stellar major league product on the field every day. Their best position player prospect struck out 35% of the time in A ball, and their best pitching prospect, Reed, is a reliever. The process of completely rebuilding a farm system can be a tough one, but they may get some assistance from some top 10 or so picks before long. Williams can’t decide if he wants to blow everything up and sell/rebuild, or if he thinks what he has can compete.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Alejandro De Aza

C – A.J. Pierzynski

SS – Alexei Ramirez

1B – Paul Konerko

DH – Adam Dunn

RF – Alex Rios

LF – Dayan Viciedo

3B – Brent Morel

2B – Gordon Beckham