Team MVP: Carlos Santana
I happen to love 25 year old switch-hitting catchers with easy, easy power and good plate discipline. I have a feeling I am not alone. Santana was 7th in the league in 2011 in BB% (14.7%), and had 27 home runs with a .217 ISO, which trailed only Mike Napoli for the lead among catchers. The great BB% has been there throughout his entire career, and I think his K% spike comes back down to normal. The increased K% and low BABIP contributed to the .239 average. He is much better against lefties (.318 avg, 11.6 K%) than righties (.201 avg, 24.4 K%), which is worrisome, but I think he hits for real power, and continues to split some time between C and 1B.
Team Cy Young: Justin Masterson
I have never been crazy about Masterson, but he sure did prove a lot in 2011. The 3.21 ERA may have been helped by a 6.3% HR/FB% when you notice the 3.64 xFIP, but unless Ubaldo Jimenez does (another) complete 180, Masterson is the go-to. He murders right handed hitters, a nice quality to have, to the tune of 8.38 Ks/9 and a .209 BAA (compared to 5.13 Ks/9 and a .283 BAA versus lefties).
The largest inning-load of his life may have caught up to him a tad, posting a (5.65 ERA) in Sept/Oct… worth noting, but hopefully no reason to worry.
Fresh face with impact: Derek Lowe
He will need help from the defense in a big way, because big strikeout numbers simply aren’t what Mr. Lowe is about, but I don’t think he has deteriorated so much that we should expect another over 5.00 ERA season. He is a veteran guy, and a proud guy, who seemed genuinely upset and disgusted with how he pitched a year ago in Atlanta. He will basically throw sinkers and sliders to induce ground balls, and as long as he stays healthy, he should give them 200 innings. Hopefully the quality of those innings improves somewhat.
Impact Prospect: Nick Hagadone
I loved Hagadone when he was with the Sox (and Indians), had him in my ‘fantasy farm system’ in one league, and then he required Tommy John. He has control issues (4.91 BBs/9 through his career) coupled with strikeout ability (9.00 Ks/9 over his career). It was news to me, but apparently he is permanently bullpen-bound and, with control honed in, could be a solid lefty specialist.
Francisco Lindor is the star in the system, but high school drafted shortstops usually take awhile to get to the majors, no matter how advanced they are.
Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Jason Kipnis
He may not be a sleeper to some, but 15 and 15 from a second baseman could be special. He will play every single day at 2nd and could hit 20 homers. I think most people have it drilled into their mind that Dustin Ackley is the best new thing at second base in the AL, and while I agree, Kipnis may not be terribly far behind. I think Ackley is better defensively and a better pure hitter (better approach, looks more smooth), which makes a difference, but ZIPS projects them to have similar offensive numbers.
Biggest Concern: Contending
The division is wide open outside of the Tigers (who are the favorites by a whole helluva lot), and even if they may not have a shot at that second wild card spot, finishing 2nd in the division again and hopefully (eh) making the Tigers a bit nervous is the goal. They’re certainly not awful, but even with that, they finished 15 games back in 2011.
Projected Lineup:
CF – Michael Brantley
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera
RF – Shin-Soo Choo
C – Carlos Santana
DH – Travis Hafner
1B – Casey Kotchman
2B – Jason Kipnis
LF – Aaron Cunningham/Shelley Duncan
3B – Lonnie Chisenhall
thecleanupspot 