Team MVP: Alex Gordon
Alex Gordon went from superstar in college and suspected Royals savior to a possible bust in the big leagues. His 2011 season was a bit of a feel good story for baseball fans, with Gordon finally breaking out to a fringe-star level. He regressed a bit in 2012 and still managed to lead all of baseball in doubles (51) while posting a +6 win season. He has become one of the better outfielders in the game, on offense and defense, and over the past two seasons only Ryan Braun has been a distinctly better outfielder than Gordon. He should continue to be a force offensively, likely posting between 15 and 20 homers, 40+ doubles, and 10+ stolen bases. As long as the great defense sticks around, he should be routinely posting 4-6 WAR seasons for at least a couple more years. His emergence only adds to the amazing level of production from the 2005 draft class.
Team Cy Young: James Shields
There are plenty of reasons to dislike the Rays trading multiple prospects, including Wil Myers, away for James Shields, but it does give them a pitcher that has been among the best in baseball in recent years. James Shields has proven himself to be a top of the rotation horse, with only Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander pitching more innings over the last three seasons. Big game James will hope to continue success with one of the league’s best change ups, upping his usage of that particular pitch each year since 2009. He has fallen victim to the home run bug before, and there is reason for fans in Kansas City to be worried: His career FIP on the road (4.38) is a full point higher than at home (3.37). Hopefully, though, he continues to throw well over 200 innings and be one of the top pitchers in the American League.
Fresh Face with Impact: Wade Davis
Davis is another piece that came over in the James Shields trade, and, from all reports, it appears that he will be used as a starting pitcher in Kansas City. He was a +1 WAR pitcher each of the past two seasons, with one major difference: That +1 in 2011 was in 184 innings as a starter, and the +1 in 2o12 was in 70 innings as a reliever. Either he totally figured things out in general and will continue with a higher K% in the rotation this season, or he is that much better as a reliever and could be headed for disaster in 2013. For better or worse, he is a starting pitcher now, and if his performance is anywhere close to what he produced out of the bullpen, it will be a huge boost for the Royals rotation.
Impact Prospect: Kyle Zimmer
Zimmer has thrown only 39 innings in professional baseball since being drafted out of San Francisco in 2012. The reports on him have been great, and he is being linked in many discussions to Kevin Gausman, a fellow 2012 draftee, as far as potential and path to the majors are concerned. He will almost without doubt reach AA, and probably AAA, sometime in 2013. With Danny Duffy coming back from surgery later in the year, it gives the Royals some predetermined rotation talent influx, but I believe that Zimmer has a chance to impact the rotation in September, especially if the Royals are still in the race and short on arms.
Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Mike Moustakas
I am fully buying into Moustakas this season after a dismal second half to 2012. I believe that he has more raw power than he has shown so far, with the chance to hit 25-30 home runs at the major league level. His defense, especially the arm, are gigantic positives, so a power outbreak could have Moose very close to the middle-upper tier of 3rd basemen. Moustakas posted a 120 wRC+ with a .220 ISO in the first half of 2012, followed by an injury-aided 57 wRC+ and .113 ISO in the second half. He is entering his age 24 season, and while the AVG and BB% may never get there, I believe his power will play up in a major way in 2013. There are worse things than power hitting third baseman that play solid defense and possess absolute cannons from the hot corner.
To 2013 and Beyond:
The Wil Myers/James Shields trade, in my opinion, is something of a disaster for the Royals, who would have been better off allowing Myers to take over for Jeff Francoeur in right field and showing more caution in their pitching signings. They overpaid for Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, and, possibly, James Shields and Wade Davis. Picture this for the winter moves in Kansas City: Signings of Guthrie, Scott Feldman, Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse, leaving them with a rotation of those four plus Luis Mendoza, Danny Duffy coming back midseason, and Kyle Zimmer waiting in the wings for September 2013 or sometime in 2o14. That process allows them to keep Wil Myers and the other prospects they gave up, leaving them with a nice core of young players in Myers, Hosmer, Moose, Alcides, and Salvador Perez. I expect more of the same from Gordon and Butler, a bounce back from Hosmer, and breakouts from Moustakas and Perez. Unfortunately, Frenchy is still in right field, and the star prospect to replace him is now gone.
I realize it is an easy task, second guessing a team’s entire winter and deciding for myself what would have been best, but I just do not believe the Shields trade was the proper time for the Royals to strike. They could prove me, and everyone else, wrong… or they could end up around .500, 3rd or 4th in the division and well behind Detroit. I like a good majority of Kansas City’s players, will tune in to see what the lineup and Shields can do, but Detroit is simply the class of the division.
Projected Lineup:
Alex Gordon – LF
Alcides Escobar – SS
Billy Butler – DH
Mike Moustakas – 3B
Salvador Perez – C
Eric Hosmer – 1B
Jeff Francoeur – RF
Lorenzo Cain – CF
Chris Getz – 2B