Team MVP: Carlos Santana
Santana, entering his age 27 season, has a chance to once again be Cleveland’s most potent offensive force from the catcher position. The switch-hitting backstop has always shown incredible plate discipline, finishing 2nd in the league in 2012 with a walk rate of 14.9%. Since his career began in 2010, his 15.4 BB% ranks fifth in the majors among those with over 1,000 plate appearances over that span. The plate discipline coupled with the power (.195 career ISO) is a unique skill set for a catcher, making a potential peak season from Santana something worthy of salivation. A great approach paired with a 25-30 home run season and improving defense behind the plate would thrust him into discussions of upper echelon catchers. With Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher in the fold to play 1B and DH, we will hopefully see Carlos Santana fully embrace the catcher role, improving his defense along the way.
Team Cy Young: Justin Masterson
I was very tempted to bet on an injury and select Trevor Bauer here, but given the command struggles last season, I need to see it early in the year first. Granted, the rest of the Indians rotation does not fill fans in Cleveland with confidence. He is better than his 4.93 ERA showed last season, and ZiPS projects him for a 4.33 ERA and improved control. He is not an elite strikeout pitcher, but the unique delivery and pounding of the zone with sinkers produces one of the best ground ball rates in baseball. As somebody that essentially pitches to contact, even if it is to induce ground balls, Masterson will never have an elite strand rate. When looking over his stats, Masterson’s +5 WAR season in 2011 is the outlier. Oddly enough, that is the worst strikeout season of his career, but the control was by far the best (2.71 BB/9), the LOB% was better than his career average, and the HR/FB% was, again, the best of his career. All of those factors lead to a career year, but 2012 showed us, unfortunately for the Indians, that his true talent is not necessarily going to reach that level.
Fresh Face with Impact: Michael Bourn
The Indians added a few impact position players over the winter, and Bourn, to me, is the most important piece. It gives the Indians a chance to compete with the Angels for the best defensive outfield in baseball, and adding a player off of a +6 WAR season is huge for Cleveland. Much of that value comes on the basepaths and in center field, skills that do not always stick with players after they turn 30, but even a small dip in either category will leave him at an elite level. Bourn stole 19 less bases in 2012 than 2011, a significant drop that hopefully does not become a pattern, but if he continues to post a wRC+ of 100 or above, he will be nearly a shoo-in for +4 WAR seasons. Considering the fact that the Indians outfield combined for 4.2 WAR and a -25.3 UZR rating in 2012, Bourn’s defense and production will be a welcome commodity.
Impact Prospect: Trevor Bauer
Again, I was certainly tempted to gamble on Bauer as this team’s Cy Young pick, so the impact prospect selection defaults to Bauer. The Free Trevor Bauer and put him in the major leagues immediately talk quickly turned to calls for his imprisonment during a shaky debut. Rather than imprison him and work on his development, the Diamondbacks elected to actually free Trevor Bauer from their organization, shipping him to Cleveland. One of these years, we will figure out more details regarding Arizona’s handling of Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer. For now, I think, or hope, that we have all learned to show a bit of patience when a prospect is walking nearly 5 guys per 9 innings at AA. I do worry that the Indians disastrous rotation will prevent them from showing the necessary patience with Bauer, but he may just have to figure it out as he goes, striking out plenty of guys and frustrating plenty of owners along the way. The excitement surrounding Bauer is real, and warranted, so my call for harnessing that eagerness is not a knock on Bauer. It is more of a comment on how, almost always, it will take longer, and happen differently, than we expect.
Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Drew Stubbs
I do not think Stubbs is that bad. I really don’t. I accepted long ago that he was not going to be the break out, power-speed combination that many hoped for, because the strikeout tendencies and approach are simply too maddening. Ask fans in Cincinnati about Stubbs and they will give you the brutal truth: A .277 OBP for the leadoff man is… well… troubling. Hate-inducing, in fact. But I have not entirely written off Stubbs. I think that the best lineup for the Indians places Stubbs in RF, Swisher at 1B, and Reynolds at DH. He is never going to be better than he was in 2010, whatever, that is not the issue. Focus on what he does bring to the table. He is an incredibly strange combination of a really good baseball player and such a terrible baseball player. I am not even apologizing for that description. He runs the bases, he has some pop, he brings outfield defense, he strikes out way too much, he does not get on base enough, and, maybe most importantly for 2013, he will not be in the leadoff spot!
To 2013 and Beyond:
I love the Cleveland lineup. They have three good switch hitters in Cabrera, Santana and Swisher. They have solid left handed bats in Bourn, Kipnis and Brantley. They have great baserunning in the form of Stubbs, Bourn and Kipnis. They will have the platoon advantage in a huge percentage of at-bats, and the lineup is particularly terrifying for RHPs. If they so desire, their lineup versus RHPs will feature Giambi at DH, Swisher in RF, and Reynolds at 1B, leaving Reynolds as the only right-handed bat. They improved the outfield defense in a major way, in turn improving the outfield production, and have the ability to deal Asdrubal Cabrera for a prospect package later in the season with Francisco Lindor waiting in the wings. I expect Francona and the versatile lineup to have them making some noise, but the best move may be to sell off the expendable, desirable pieces and continue to improve the entire organization.
The pitching staff very quickly quells the excitement gained from fiddling with different lineup combinations. The possibility that Trevor Bauer joins the team and is the best pitcher is probably more of an indictment of the major league staff than projecting Bauer as a superstar. There is exciting stuff to monitor in the rotation, like Scott Kazmir’s return to a major league mound as the number 5 starter, but it will likely be Cleveland’s fatal flaw in 2013.
Projected Lineup:
Michael Bourn – CF
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
Jason Kipnis – 2B
Nick Swisher – 1B
Carlos Santana – C
Mark Reynolds – DH
Michael Brantley – LF
Lonnie Chisenhall – 3B
Drew Stubbs – RF
thecleanupspot 