2013 Kansas City Royals Preview

Team MVP: Alex Gordon

Alex Gordon went from superstar in college and suspected Royals savior to a possible bust in the big leagues.  His 2011 season was a bit of a feel good story for baseball fans, with Gordon finally breaking out to a fringe-star level.  He regressed a bit in 2012 and still managed to lead all of baseball in doubles (51) while posting a +6 win season.  He has become one of the better outfielders in the game, on offense and defense, and over the past two seasons only Ryan Braun has been a distinctly better outfielder than Gordon.  He should continue to be a force offensively, likely posting between 15 and 20 homers, 40+ doubles, and 10+ stolen bases.  As long as the great defense sticks around, he should be routinely posting 4-6 WAR seasons for at least a couple more years.  His emergence only adds to the amazing level of production from the 2005 draft class.

Team Cy Young: James Shields

There are plenty of reasons to dislike the Rays trading multiple prospects, including Wil Myers, away for James Shields, but it does give them a pitcher that has been among the best in baseball in recent years.  James Shields has proven himself to be a top of the rotation horse, with only Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander pitching more innings over the last three seasons.  Big game James will hope to continue success with one of the league’s best change ups, upping his usage of that particular pitch each year since 2009.  He has fallen victim to the home run bug before, and there is reason for fans in Kansas City to be worried: His career FIP on the road (4.38) is a full point higher than at home (3.37).  Hopefully, though, he continues to throw well over 200 innings and be one of the top pitchers in the American League.

Fresh Face with Impact: Wade Davis

Davis is another piece that came over in the James Shields trade, and, from all reports, it appears that he will be used as a starting pitcher in Kansas City.  He was a +1 WAR pitcher each of the past two seasons, with one major difference: That +1 in 2011 was in 184 innings as a starter, and the +1 in 2o12 was in 70 innings as a reliever.  Either he totally figured things out in general and will continue with a higher K% in the rotation this season, or he is that much better as a reliever and could be headed for disaster in 2013.  For better or worse, he is a starting pitcher now, and if his performance is anywhere close to what he produced out of the bullpen, it will be a huge boost for the Royals rotation.

Impact Prospect: Kyle Zimmer

Zimmer has thrown only 39 innings in professional baseball since being drafted out of San Francisco in 2012.  The reports on him have been great, and he is being linked in many discussions to Kevin Gausman, a fellow 2012 draftee, as far as potential and path to the majors are concerned.  He will almost without doubt reach AA, and probably AAA, sometime in 2013.  With Danny Duffy coming back from surgery later in the year, it gives the Royals some predetermined rotation talent influx, but I believe that Zimmer has a chance to impact the rotation in September, especially if the Royals are still in the race and short on arms.

Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Mike Moustakas

I am fully buying into Moustakas this season after a dismal second half to 2012.  I believe that he has more raw power than he has shown so far, with the chance to hit 25-30 home runs at the major league level.  His defense, especially the arm, are gigantic positives, so a power outbreak could have Moose very close to the middle-upper tier of 3rd basemen.  Moustakas posted a 120 wRC+ with a .220 ISO in the first half of 2012, followed by an injury-aided 57 wRC+ and .113 ISO in the second half.  He is entering his age 24 season, and while the AVG and BB% may never get there, I believe his power will play up in a major way in 2013.  There are worse things than power hitting third baseman that play solid defense and possess absolute cannons from the hot corner.

To 2013 and Beyond:

The Wil Myers/James Shields trade, in my opinion, is something of a disaster for the Royals, who would have been better off allowing Myers to take over for Jeff Francoeur in right field and showing more caution in their pitching signings.  They overpaid for Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, and, possibly, James Shields and Wade Davis.  Picture this for the winter moves in Kansas City: Signings of Guthrie, Scott Feldman, Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse, leaving them with a rotation of those four plus Luis Mendoza, Danny Duffy coming back midseason, and Kyle Zimmer waiting in the wings for September 2013 or sometime in 2o14.  That process allows them to keep Wil Myers and the other prospects they gave up, leaving them with a nice core of young players in Myers, Hosmer, Moose, Alcides, and Salvador Perez.  I expect more of the same from Gordon and Butler, a bounce back from Hosmer, and breakouts from Moustakas and Perez.  Unfortunately, Frenchy is still in right field, and the star prospect to replace him is now gone.

I realize it is an easy task, second guessing a team’s entire winter and deciding for myself what would have been best, but I just do not believe the Shields trade was the proper time for the Royals to strike.  They could prove me, and everyone else, wrong… or they could end up around .500, 3rd or 4th in the division and well behind Detroit.  I like a good majority of Kansas City’s players, will tune in to see what the lineup and Shields can do, but Detroit is simply the class of the division.

Projected Lineup:

Alex Gordon – LF

Alcides Escobar – SS

Billy Butler – DH

Mike Moustakas – 3B

Salvador Perez – C

Eric Hosmer – 1B

Jeff Francoeur – RF

Lorenzo Cain – CF

Chris Getz – 2B

2012 Kansas City Royals Preview

Team MVP: Eric Hosmer

I never knew much about Hosmer. I remembered him being drafted, but I didn’t follow the draft then as closely as I do now. When it was very clear that he was going to be coming up in 2011, he became the hot topic in every prospect/fantasy/scouting chat prior to and during the 2011 season. I recall a few scouts pretty clearly saying, “You must not remember how hyped he was coming out of high school. He was hyped as much as any high school hitter recently, save Bryce Harper.”

This opened my eyes a little, and made me more excited about Hosmer. It turns out the hype was well-earned. He has fared far better than the two bats drafted ahead of him (Beckham, Alvarez) and more than held his own at the plate in 2011.  Now, the same tune continues from scouts and projections… this kid will rake, average will hover around .300+ every year of his prime, and there’s not much bad to say. One sad point for him: He can be elite and still struggle to make an all-star team based on competition in the A.L.

Team Cy Young: Felipe Paulino

I never, ever thought I would type that string of words. Part of the reason I had to? The Royals’ staff is incredibly underwhelming. I always liked Jonathan Sanchez, but I don’t like him moving to that park in the American League and still walking way too many guys. I chose Paulino because his xFIP (3.73) was way better than his ERA (4.46), and hopefully his two most common pitches, four seam (one of the harder throwing starters in baseball, averaging 95 mph) and slider, can produce results.

I understand this whole youth movement injecting enthusiasm into the Royals for the first time in recent memory, but sprinkling any sort of pitching into that recipe is a dire need. Duffy, Montgomery, and Lamb… one lefty has to stick, right? (For the record, I like Jake Odorizzi as the guy who will keep getting it done despite less hype than most prospects… Jordan Zimmermann-ish)

Fresh face with impact: Jonathan Sanchez

I wrote this about Sanchez last year (in my Giants’ preview as a possible breakout candidate).

Don’t watch him pitch.  No, I’m serious, don’t.  He will drive you nuts in a Dice-K-ian, “Throw a fastball down the middle, for a strike, right now, you idiot…” kind of way… But it is all there.  The trends, the stuff… and the pull your hair out 3-1 counts to 8-hitters when it seems like he has no idea where the next pitch is going…

Sanchez walked 5.86 guys per 9 innings last season. Ya know, in hindsight, maybe it’s not all effing there?

He is a fresh face. They need him to be good, because they need pitching. He is also, oftentimes, positively infuriating.

Impact Prospect: Wil Myers

Loved him coming out of high school, figured he wouldn’t end up catching, and his bat progressing faster than some thought confirmed that. He is incredibly athletic, and may have been the only guy to outperform Bryce Harper in the Arizona Fall League (he raked, to the tune of .360). He takes his walks (10.1 BB% over his career), and with Myers waiting in the minors, I don’t think the Royals are keeping Jeff Francoeur long term. He is the forgotten prospect out of Hosmer, Moustakas, and Myers, and has now been overshadowed by Bubba Starling being drafted… but I think Myers will hit at every level and have a good career. As an off the top of my head comparison, he seems like a Hunter-Pence-ish good athlete who will play hard and hit, hit, hit.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Greg Holland

The Joakim Soria injury makes Holland the pick. Holland struck out 11.10 per 9 last year out of the bullpen, and seems to be your typical great fastball, great slider, shut down reliever. As a RHP, he struck out an impressive 36% of the lefties he faced. He almost has to close now, right? I have a strange feeling the Royals will give Jonathan Broxton first dibs at the spot, but we will see.

Biggest Concern: Staying the course

I see the athleticism, but the jury is still very, very much out for me on Bubba Starling. He’s far away from the majors. But they do have good prospects. They have locked up Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar long term. Alex Gordon has come along incredibly well. All of the good things are seeming to fall in place, but there is still something missing in the form of impact pitchers. There will continue to be hype, hope, and before too long, expectations, for this younger bunch.

Projected Lineup:

LF – Alex Gordon

CF – Lorenzo Cain

1B – Eric Hosmer

DH – Billy Butler

3B – Mike Moustakas

RF – Jeff Francoeur

C – Brayan Pena (Salvador Perez when he returns)

2B – Johnny Giavotella

SS – Alcides Escobar