April 9th, 10th Observations

• My opinion (as if any of this isn’t?): Bryce Harper has a chance to basically be Josh Hamilton without the drug issues to ruin parts of his career. Same skillset. Hate on.

• Holliday, Molina, and especially Beltran, Freese, sure do seem locked in to start the year.
• I think Yu Darvish’s struggles may simply boil down to adrenaline and being high strung for his first start. That said, my main concern: when he started to miss the zone onsistently, his only cure for that was throwing fastballs right down the middle. I’m not too concerned… both of his breaking balls are devastating, and if he settles in with command, it’ll be dazzling.
• Still the most entertaining item of the year: Braves’ fans overanalyzing and acting like they will never win another game.
• They did finally win one, by the way. Chipper Jones added to his folk tale in the south reputation with a great play on a bunt and a bomb his first game back. It’s almost like he is an angel with a southern drawl sent down specifically to help the Braves beat the Astros on April 10th, 2012. Almost.
• Tom Milone… I don’t think that will be the last time you something similar to that. You have a good chance to drive statistics like xFIP and FIP absolutely bonkers.
• Barry Zito… I do think that will be your last time doing that. But still nice to see. He still has small flashes where nobody can hit his curveball.
• #FreeTrevorBauer and/or #FreeTylerSkaggs will gain more and more steam. Josh Collmenter just isn’t as good as those two, and Bauer is making mincemeat of the minor leagues.
• Jayson Werth got 4 hits in a major league baseball game on Tuesday. And it was not the most important part of the game, to me. I tweeted it, I’ll say it: Ross Detwiler would be a huge addition if he can have some impact. He was sitting 91-92 and had a few Ks on high fastballs at 93 mph. He worked both sides of the plate to lefties and righties. His curveball, oddly enough, was actually up in the zone on a few of his strikeouts, but it has kneebuckling ability. It was one start, it was the Mets, he only went 5 innings (not stretched out yet), but 2 hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks on 71 pitches (50 strikes) looked great.

Today: Garcia @ Cueto, Lester @ Romero, Shields @ Verlander, Strasburg @ Santana, Gallardo @ Dempster, Johnson @ Halladay… in addition to C.C., Weaver, Lincecum, Masterson being on the mound somewhere out there. Who else is glad baseball is back?

Tonight: I might go see Dylan Bundy pitch. It’s that (if he’s confirmed to be starting) or Josh Johnson/Roy Halladay on tap. There will probably be some Penguins/Flyers NHL playoffs sprinkled in.

April 4th, 5th, 6th Observations

• Marlins’ ballpark is positively gorgeous
• I actually like the home run monstrosity in the outfield. Sorry, I just do.
• If you hate it, you probably won’t have to see it much… that stadium is gigantic. It will greatly test Stanton and Morrison’s outfield defense.
• It’s one start, but Josh Johnson just did not look sharp to me. He may still be getting used to fully letting it go on his fastball. It will be interesting to see if (when) he finds that groove.
• Tommy Hanson throwing 88-89 probably won’t work well, at all.
• Braves’ fans overreacting to every possibly move Fredi Gonzalez makes/doesn’t make/could’ve made/thought about making is extraordinarily entertaining.
• Stephen Strasburg is good. Just a fact. He got better as the game went along, broke the same amount of bats as batters he struck out, and could have gone 9 without much trouble. In 2013 and beyond, that’s his ball until HE decides to go to the bullpen.
• Ryan Zimmerman was robbed (by a lot of wind blowing in) of two home runs that would have fairly easily left Wrigley Field. Like, the whole stadium.
• Alfonso Soriano was robbed of one in the same fashion.
• Adam LaRoche has a good chance to be genuinely terrible all season long. Ryan Dempster was in a groove and looked great, but a lot of pitchers will be in a groove against LaRoche this season.
• Starlin Castro has a good chance to be Hanley-Ramirez-lite. Little less peak power. Little less peak speed. Potentially disappointing defense included.
• Lidge, Rodriguez, Clippard, Storen is a slew of great right-handed relievers, in that order.
• Jay Bruce may never reach utter-MVP-level stardom, but my god he can hit a baseball. That home run to dead center was as squared up as a ball can be, and it looked like he’s used to doing that.
• Edinson Volquez looked great. If the 95-97 mph stuff with a sharper curveball is there all season, he and PetCo should get along just fine.
• The Royals are not as good as everybody wants them to be. My apologies.
• I am a gigantic Peter Bourjos fan.
• Yovani Gallardo… that wasn’t pretty. One start, left some balls up, and pretty much put it on a tee for those 4 bombs (David Freese literally switched his swing up, hitched, and tried to hit the ball as far as he possibly could).
• Adam Dunn… nice of you to join us.
• Troy Tulowitzki… least surprising thing of the day.
• Evan Longoria… tied for least surprising thing of the day.
• Nick Markakis… one of my favorite players, has been for a long time, looks effortless when he plays, and the Orioles’ cartoon-bird uniforms/hats/helmets look great.
• Mark Trumbo may win the battle of guys who shouldn’t be playing third base and suck a lot at it.
• If Derek Jeter were a mildly competent defensive shortstop, the rally against Rivera never happens. Anybody who would argue that defensive stats are overrated and all that jazz simply doesn’t watch. Any good shortstop makes the play on the ball Jennings hit up the middle (Jennings’ speed may make that point moot… but Jeter wasn’t in the same area code).
• Late addition: Yoenis Cespedes absolutely crushed that. Just saw the replay. Saw 460+ feet being mentioned on Twitter. It was text-your-friends worthy.

2012 National League Predictions

NL MVP

1. Joey Votto
2. Justin Upton
3. Ryan Zimmerman
4. Troy Tulowitzki

NL Cy Young

1. Zach Greinke
2. Josh Johnson
3. Roy Halladay
4. Clayton Kershaw

NL ROY

1. Yonder Alonso
2. Devin Mesoraco
3. Bryce Harper
4. Trevor Bauer
5. Drew Pomeranz

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Two Wild Cards

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Cincinnati Reds

2012 American League Predictions

AL MVP:

1. Evan Longoria
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Albert Pujols
4. Adrian Gonzalez

AL Cy Young:

1. David Price
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Justin Verlander
4. Jon Lester

AL ROY:

1. Matt Moore
2. Yu Darvish
3. Jesus Montero
4. Yoenis Cespedes
5. Addison Reed

AL East:

1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics

Two Wild Cards:

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Texas Rangers

All Milk Carton Team

It is somewhat self-explanatory. Some people may have been injured, simply struggled mightily a year ago, and not performed when their team heavily relied on their production. I will go position by position with some guys that were missing-in-action recently, and we will see if they can bounce back. Most of the people on this list are guys that I think have a good chance to bounce back, not guys that just got a random shot in the show and won’t have a real impact again. In a nutshell, this will be a yearly list that all players want to avoid.

C – Joe Mauer: This one is obvious. I talked about it when I picked him as the Twins MVP. He is as important to his team as anybody in the league, and for Minnesota, they need some sort of production… or that contract gets worse and worse. He can’t catch 150+ games. He just can’t do it. So, splitting time with DH and 1B is a must.

1B – Justin Morneau: Morneau’s, like Mauer’s, isn’t 110% about performance… but more about injury and bouncing back. It’s scary stuff, these concussions, and in 2010 when he went down for so long he was in the middle of a .345/.437/.618 clip with 18 homers and +5.1 WAR through 81 games. That’s monster production, and it completely disappeared ever since.

2B – Aaron Hill / Kelly Johnson: Ah, the classic “change of scenery” case. These two players were literally switched for each other just to see if production would get a kick in the rear, and I like both of their chances to have better years in 2012. I don’t think either of them has a chance to match their great, peak years of old, but they can’t be that bad, right?

3B – Pedro Alvarez: This got ugly. In 2010, Alvarez struck out 30.8% of the time, but it was somewhat okay because he displayed some power and was still young. “The K% will come down as he grows as a hitter,” seemed to be the consensus, and I was aboard. Last year, he was missing the ball just as much (still over 30% K rate), but the power that had kept him afloat disappeared. Most scouts I have heard weren’t totally surprised, and it seems like Alvarez has been written off. He has a lot of proving himself to do, and the Pirates could use SOME production from the former #2 pick (ahead of Hosmer and Posey). This also happens to be the guy on this list I have the least faith in to not suck a lot again.

SS – Hanley Ramirez: I have already said that I think he bounces back. I think he gets a huge kick in the ass from fans caring, and Jose Reyes has a positive, rather than negative, effect on his mindset. The production may have deteriorated and not match his 30-30 years, but a guy as gifted as Hanley needs to be the face of the ‘new’ Marlins franchise. I love watching Reyes play, but Hanley’s defense at third and bat in the middle of the lineup decides where this team goes.

OF – Jayson Werth: I am on the ‘there’s no way he can be that bad again’ bandwagon (as I am with most of these guys). He has been ripped on about as much as a guy can be for having a 20HR-19SB season, and I guess the contract is the reason for that. I don’t think he jumps back to 36 home run production, but I do think the average comes up and he becomes a doubles machine.

OF -Carl Crawford: I wrote about it already in the Red Sox preview. The wrist worries the hell out of me. Much of his value is completely destroyed by a less than spacious left field. I don’t know how he will continue to handle the scrutiny that comes with Boston. The contract will never look good. But, all of that aside, he is too talented to be that bad again.

OF – Jason Heyward: It’s odd to have a 22 year old guy with STAR potential on this list, but he really did disappear in 2011. I am not writing him off, by any means. He was a 5 win player as a 21 year old and almost posted a .400 OBP. It does worry me, however, that he looked completely lost against LHPs in 2011. He posted a .192 batting average against lefties, and if you saw him play, the approach looked worse. I expect 2012 to be closer to 2010 than 2011, and Heyward still has a great career ahead of him.

DH – Kendrys Morales and Adam Dunn: One to weird as hell injury, one to sucky as hell season, I think both of these guys have a good 2012. It will be great to see Kendrys bounce back from the leg injury, and Dunn be someone who people are scared to pitch to again. Have heard nothing but good things about both of these guys.