2013 Minnesota Twins Season Preview

Team MVP: Joe Mauer

Mauer’s power likely won’t ever reach his 2009 MVP campaign levels, a year in which he hit 28 home runs and slugged .587, but as long as he retains his health he will be one of the best catchers in baseball each and every year.  With one of the best approaches and hit tools in the game, he is close to a lock for an average above .300 and an OBP north of .400.  For his career, Mauer has a .323 average and 555 walks to 475 strikeouts.  The Twins did a good job lightening the wear and tear on Mauer in 2012, playing him 74 games behind the plate, 30 as 1B, and 42 as DH.  As long as they continue that pattern, he will produce with the bat.

Team Cy Young: Vance Worley

Worley provides the best strikeouts rates on the Twins’ staff, posting a career 7.71 Ks/9in 277 innings.  Over the course of the 2011 season, aided by a low HR/FB% (which should play well at Target Field), Worley posted over 8 Ks/9 and an ERA of 3.01 in 21 games started.  He relies heavily on command, spotting up his pitches and using his entire repertoire, but with the state of Minnesota’s starting staff and Kyle Gibson likely likely limited due to Tommy John, Worley is the best bet for value in the rotation.

Fresh Face with Impact: Mike Pelfrey

Minnesota signed the former 9th overall pick with bolstering the rotation in mind.  He fits the profile of recent Twins pitchers, not missing too many bats, showing good control, and pitching to contact.  Pelfrey missed almost all of 2012 due to Tommy John surgery, but the 29 year old should get better as the season goes on and he builds arm strength.  Despite never racking up high strikeout totals, Pelfrey’s low-mid 90s fastball and sinking fastball allow him to go after hitters and rely on his defense for assistance.

Impact Prospect: Aaron Hicks

Props to the Twins, in a way, for not caring about the arbitration clock and simply putting their best option in center field.  Hicks entered spring training with a chance to win the job, but if he needed a bit more AA or AAA seasoning, the Twins would have been fine allowing for that.  He basically forced them to keep him on the major league club.  The switch-hitting Hicks played a full season at AA in 2012, sporting a .382 OBP and 14% walk rate that should be a great addition to the leadoff role in Minnesota.  He stole 32 bases and flashed enough power for 13 home runs and a .459 slugging percentage, numbers he could reach this season in the majors.

When the Twins traded away Ben Revere and Denard Span, they opened the door for Hicks at some point early in 2013.  Lucky for baseball fans, we get to see him from day one.

Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Chris Parmelee

The left-handed hitting Parmelee looks to be Minnesota’s every day right fielder in 2013, and hopefully the great plate discipline that he showed at AAA in 2012 (and for most of his minor league career) joins him.  He posted a .338/.457/.645 line with 17 home runs in 64 minor league games last season, walking almost as much as he struck out.  He can produce offensively, never posting a wRC+ below 100 at any level until his struggles in the majors last season.  Even with those struggles, he clubbed 22 homers in 2012, so his emergence as one of the Twins larger power threats should not be much of a surprise.

To 2013 and Beyond:

The Alex Meyer for Denard Span trade was tabbed by some as the best move of the off season… for Washington.  While that may be true, and Meyer may still need fine tuning, it is nice to see the Twins making moves for more powerful arms to stock their system.  They cleared the way for their “closest to the majors” hitting prospect, added some depth to their starting pitching, and hopefully Justin Morneau will be a bit more Justin Morneau-y after finally playing more regularly in 2012.  They have pieces, in Morneau and Willingham, that could be dealt to add more depth to the system, and the current lineup is actually more exciting than I initially thought.

The Twins possess a great farm system, with star potential in Hicks, Buxton, and Sano, and very solid prospects in Oswaldo Arcia and Eddie Rosario.  The pitching depth in the form of newly acquired Trevor May and Alex Meyer, along with Jose Berrios, has real potential if they all project as starters, rather than relievers.

Projected Lineup:

Aaron Hicks – CF

Brian Dozier – 2B

Joe Mauer – C

Josh Willingham – LF

Justin Morneau – 1B

Chris Parmelee – RF

Ryan Doumit – DH

Trevor Plouffe – 3B

Pedro Florimon, Jr – SS

2012 Minnesota Twins Preview

Team MVP: Joe Mauer

Mauer simply cannot stay healthy. I don’t know if it will take a lot more DH time or some time at 1B/3B to spell him from having to catch, but he likely won’t last the full season behind the plate. The “Well played, Mauer,” punchline has turned into “Please play, Mauer,” amongst baseball fans, especially those in Minnesota and those who own him in fantasy. The decline is a mix of having the insane 2009 season in recent memory and health problems. He was never going to match the power production in 2009, and now that he is oft-injured, the other production has declined steadily. Mauer slugged .368 in 2011 with a .081 ISO, compared to a .471 career average in slugging and .148 ISO. Mauer was on track to be a surefire hall of fame player only a couple of years ago, and now he is fighting to stay in the lineup (not due to talent, but due to health). If he can play even 130 games this season, I think he could crack double digit home runs and hit over .300… he is still a supreme talent. It would be refreshing to see him being an incredibly tough out again, as we didn’t get that luxury from Mauer in 2011.

Team Cy Young: Scott Baker

Always been a fan of Scott Baker. To a fault, almost, through his injuries and not great ERAs. He was injured in 2011, but for the time he pitched, it was the best year of his career. He posted career bests of 8.22 Ks/9, 3.14 ERA, and a 3.61 xFIP. I can’t put any faith in Franisco Liriano at this point, as much as I fully wanted to for awhile, and Baker is overlooked and actually pretty darn good.

Fresh face with impact: Josh Willingham

First of all, he is THE slugging in this lineup as of opening day. Until Justin Morneau proves he has anything left, and maybe even if he does, Willingham is their best power hitter. He hit 29 home runs last year while playing in Oakland (15 of which were at home), a rather overlooked feat. He will hit 25 homers in Minnesota this year, and probably get hurt and miss some time. Whenever Morneau struggles or goes down, Willingham will be hitting cleanup behind Mauer. And whenever Mauer is hurt, who knows what the hell will happen?

Impact Prospect: Levi Michael

He was the Twins’ 2011 first round pick, but I think he may be closer to the majors than Miguel Sano is in the Twins’ system. Michael is still young, 21 throughout this season, despite having a great career at North Carolina. He left high school and skipped his senior baseball season to enroll early at North Carolina, then proceeded to tear the ACC up throughout his career. He is versatile, playing 2B, 3B, and SS in college, and basically a good contact switch-hitter, with power for a lot of doubles and speed for 20 steals. He has always screamed ‘Brian Roberts’ to me when I see him play, and I think his skillset and pedigree has him closer to the majors than a lot of Twins position prospects.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Liam Hendricks

Although a prospect, I put Hendricks here because he is one injury away from being in the Twins’ rotation. He doesn’t throw hard, but will look to induce ground balls and command the strike zone, even though he doesn’t post high strikeout numbers. The Twins probably planned to have Kyle Gibson as next-in-line, but after Gibson required Tommy John, Hendricks got a short stint last season and I think he will see time in the rotation again this year.

Biggest Concern: Health of Mauer/Morneau

Their health issues are well-documented, and downright fishy/scary when you consider Mauer’s inability to regain health and Morneau’s concussion scare being an ongoing thing. These  former AL MVPs here, and a short time ago had the entire twins organization firmly planted on their back to be carried. We see how much the Twins struggle without their production, and if that is the case again this year, it will be another long season (and a long Mauer contract) for Minnesota.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Denard Span

2B – Alexi Casilla

C – Joe Mauer

1B – Justin Morneau

RF – Josh Willingham

DH – Ryan Doumit

3B – Danny Valencia

LF – Ben Revere

SS – Jamey Carroll