Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera is the current class of the league, coming off an MVP campaign and the first triple crown in decades. One reason to be cautious when overdosing on triple crown excitement: Cabrera was probably better offensively in 2010 and 2011 than 2012, the year most will remember as his best. Miggy did not surprise anybody with his performance as a third baseman in 2012: He continued to absolutely knock the cover off of the ball, and his defensive ratings were below average. That is the package. While the defense is unlikely to improve anytime soon, that package still makes Cabrera one of the best players in baseball, without question. Since 2010, Cabrera leads all players with a 171 wRC+ and a .604 SLG%, the only player to post a mark over .600 for the last three seasons.
His 44 home run campaign in 2012 set a new career high, and a career best HR/FB% of 23% led to that mark. Cabrera is entering his age 30 season, so there is a chance that the 40 home run power could become the norm for a few more seasons. Even if not, Miggy will remain one of the toughest outs in baseball, and continue forging a path toward the hall of fame.
Team Cy Young: Justin Verlander
The 2nd half of another supremely obvious MVP/Cy Young pairing, Verlander’s brilliance has given the Tigers two straight AL MVP award winners. His 2012 was worthy of another Cy Young, and he just fell short, losing out to David Price. Verlander has thrown over 200 innings each season since 2007, peaking over the last two seasons with 251 and 238 innings. Given those totals plus pitching in the playoffs, you worry somewhat about wear and tear on the arm. However, it seems that if we should trust anybody to consistently take the ball and not give it up to anybody in the bullpen, it’s Verlander. The only frightening part about that: It seems like we were just recently saying the same thing about Roy Halladay. So, nothing lasts forever, especially not pitcher arms, but for now we can sit back and enjoy. He sports one of the best fastball/curveball combinations on planet earth, sitting around 94-96 mph and consistently reaching back to touch the upper nineties or triple digits late in games.
Fresh Face with Impact: Torii Hunter
The Tigers let Delmon Young go and brought Torii Hunter on board over the winter. In 2012, Delmon Young was one of the worst players in baseball, sporting a wRC+ of 89 and compiling -0.9 WAR over the course of the season. Hunter, on the other hand, had a wRC+ of 130, good enough for a +5 WAR season. After posting UZR ratings in the negatives for 6 consecutive seasons, Hunter’s defense bounced back in 2012. If that continues as a positive in Detroit, even with offensive regression, the 37 year old Hunter will hopefully continue to be a 2-3 win player as the sun sets on his career. The main thing: He is a huge upgrade from Delmon Young.
Impact Prospect: Bruce Rondon
Rondon was recently sent back to the minors after being some people’s favorite to land the closer job in Spring Training. I think it is the right move, as he currently has no idea where the ball is going, but it might not take too many blown saves combined with positive signs in AAA at the beginning of the year for the Tigers to call upon Rondon to close games. He may not be the one that solves any closer issues. I would like to see Benoit, Coke, Alburquerque, and Dotel get a shot at the job. Lucky for the Tigers, the rotation is pretty awesome, which will hopefully place less of a burden on the bullpen.
Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Victor Martinez
Victor Martinez’s return in 2013 will be the equivalent of the Tigers adding one of the best available bats over an MLB off season. He has consistently been a great hitter throughout his career, and hopefully he can bounce back from a knee injury that cost him all of 2012. The Tigers lineup had added Torii Hunter to the 2 hole and switch-hitting Victor to the 5 hole. In 2011, Martinez posted a .330/.380/.470 line, which is a scary thing to add to a lineup that already includes Cabrera and Fielder.
To 2013 and Beyond:
We already know about the superstar talent in Detroit. They are the defending American League champion and have a great roster in a fairly easy division. They got better over the winter. The entire league’s ace in Verlander, and two sluggers in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Detroit’s off season saw an influx of two good players in Hunter and Martinez, but the downside of that is counting on a 37 year old and 34 year old coming off of a knee injury. It does not stop there in Detroit, though, with Austin Jackson hopefully finding more consistent offense, Alex Avila bouncing back, and one of Don Kelly, Andy Dirks, or Nick Castellanos emerging in left field. The worst pitcher in the rotation is a 24 year old coming off a +3 win season in Rick Porcello, and they also have Drew Smyly (8.52 K/9, 2.99 BB/9 in 2012) just relaxing in the bullpen waiting to be called upon to help the rotation. The bullpen has a chance to be frustrating, despite some good arms in the back end, but the starting pitching and the offense will cover most of those faults. They are the heavy favorites to win the AL Central and one of the better teams in baseball.
Projected Lineup:
Austin Jackson – CF
Torii Hunter – RF
Miguel Cabrera – 3B
Prince Fielder – 1B
Victor Martinez – DH
Andy Dirks – LF
Jhonny Peralta – SS
Alex Avila – C
Omar Infante – 2B