2013 Chicago White Sox Season Preview

Team MVP: Alex Rios

For whatever reason, I have taken a liking to Rios through watching him last season and in the World Baseball Classic.  The fact that he responded to immense criticism throughout 2011 with a career year was exciting.  It would be a surprise, even to me, if he repeats 2012’s performance, but I still enjoy his game.  His average will likely dip below .300, and the walk numbers have been trending down in recent years (4.1% in 2012, amongst the lowest in baseball), but I still believe he will be a 20-20 player.  Most of the White Sox lineup is solid, not great, and the power plus speed combination from Rios makes him their most important position player heading into the season.

Team Cy Young: Chris Sale

I tabbed Sale as my breakout pick a season ago and he did not disappoint.  He was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2012, top 20 in the league in ERA, FIP, Ks/9, and SwStr%.  The strikeout rate and fastball velocity dropped, as expected, when Sale became a full-time starter rather than a reliever, but improved control led to his breakout season.  Sale walked nearly 3.5 per 9 in 2011 out of the bullpen, and that number dropped to 2.39BB/9 as a starter, by far the lowest mark of Sale’s career.  Extraordinary, considering the raw stuff and swing and miss tendencies.  Armed with a funky, deceptive delivery, Sale attacks hitters of either handedness with a wipeout slider and devastating change up.  The two off speed offerings allow him to move the fastball to either corner of the plate, commanding each at bat.  Some scouts worry about the delivery potentially leading to arm troubles, but until that happens, Sale will be everything that the White Sox hoped for when they drafted him, and when they signed him to an extension in the off season.

Fresh Face with Impact: Jeff Keppinger

The White Sox filled a gaping hole at third base in 2012 by acquiring Kevin Youkilis from Boston.  It was clear that they did not intend to sign the Youkah long-term, which led to the 3 year/$12 million Keppinger contract over the winter.  The free-swinging Keppinger had his best season in 2012, finishing with a .325/367/.439 slash line.  Of his 125 hits, 100 of them were singles, so it will be interesting to monitor his slugging in Chicago’s more hitter-friendly environment. ZiPS projects Keppinger for a wOBA of .322, which would be acceptable production for the ChiSox considering the alternatives.

Keppinger will put the ball in play, posting the 4th highest Contact% in baseball in 2012 (92.6%), so much of his offensive production will be determined by the mood of the BABIP Gods.

Impact Prospect: Trayce Thompson

Thompson, despite consistently troubling K rates in the minors, has produced at every level.  Luckily, he has a solid walk rate to go along with the obvious swing-and-miss tendencies.  He is still growing as a player, but the speed will play in center field down the line, and the raw tools will play even with heavy strikeout totals.  Thompson spent most of his time in High-A ball in 2012, but did eventually make it to AAA, leading one to believe that he will start with a short stint in AA or a full season of AAA in 2013.  The White Sox have a lot of fourth outfielder types in DeWayne Wise, Jordan Danks, and Jared Mitchell, allowing the organization to be patient with Thompson’s approach and hit tool.

Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Addison Reed

Reed’s 2012 season looks bad from an ERA standpoint, but looking at the strikeout and walk rates, along with the incredibly unkind strand rate, gives reason to be excited for a step forward in 2013.  Reed finished with an ERA of 4.75 while sporting an FIP of 3.64.  His 8.84 Ks/9 was the lowest mark of his career at any level, and a minor uptick in strikeouts will lead to a great season.  He has great stuff, a bit of a funky pause in his delivery, and, as cliched as it is, finally owns the closer role, one he is used to, heading into the season.  To me, a breakout means better player performance, but the thing that some may notice at the end of the season is a higher save total, which is almost sure to happen, as well.

To 2013 and Beyond:

The farm system is still a concern, but there are some bright spots.  The aforementioned Thompson moved up a couple of levels in 2012, and Keenyn Walker is another guy that needs the tools to reach their potential.  Scott Snodgress, a projectable LHP, improves the depth of the starting pitching on the farm.  The true gem in the system is Courtney Hawkins, he of draft day backflip flame.  He brings superstar potential into a system yearning for it, but as a toolsy high school athlete, he will need plenty of minor league marinating.

For the major league club, there is still an outside shot at an AL Central title.  The desire to send longtime ChiSox first baseman Paul Konerko on a division winning farewell tour should make for some added motivation in Chicago.  In all likelihood, they will be battling for one of the AL Wild card spots.

Projected Lineup: 

Alejandro De Aza – CF

Jeff Keppinger – 3B

Alex Rios – CF

Paul Konerko – 1B

Adam Dunn – DH

Dayan Viciedo – LF

Alexei Ramirez – SS

Tyler Flowers – C

Gordon Beckham – 2B

2012 Chicago White Sox Preview

Team MVP: Alexei Ramirez

Great defensively, solid offensively, Ramirez is a great shortstop who never seems to get the love that many shortstops do. He led the majors in shortstop UZR a year ago, and is a good bet for 15-20 homers and double digit steals. He could very easily be a perennial +4 win player, and might be one of the most overlooked guys that falls into that category. He is simply their best player, with a tip of the cap and much respect to the ever-producing Paul Konerko.

Team Cy Young: John Danks

This rotation (Danks, Gavin Floyd, Phil Humber, Jake Peavy) seems to be filled with guys who are good but not great. Guys who the Red Sox / Yankees / etc would love to have as their 4th and 5th guys in the rotation, but aren’t necessarily fit to carry a rotation. Danks’ strikeouts and walks have been trending in the proper respective directions from 2009-2011.  He had a streaky year in 2011, posting a 6.89 ERA in May, 1.14 in June, 0.69 in July, and then an appalling 7.76 in Sept/Oct. He has completely stopped throwing his slider (which he threw 20% of the time in 2009) and heavily increased his cut-fastball throwing, up to 25.6% in 2011, compared to 0.8% in 2009.

This is a graph displaying Danks’ ERA over the course of last season. MLB average ERA shown in red.

Credit to Fangraphs for the great work they do on the graph.

Credit to http://www.fangraphs.com

Fresh face with impact: Simon Castro

It was Castro of Kosuke Fukudome for this pick, and I chose the one with possible upside. Castro was acquired after a hideous 2011 (10.17 ERA at the AAA level) from the Padres organization for Carlos Quentin. The White Sox are hoping he can bounce back and return to the decent form he possessed in 2010 at the AA level (2.92 ERA, 7.9 Ks/9), but the scary thing is, he struggled in AAA (7.84 ERA) in 2010, as well. The struggles at AAA could boil down to not having great command or control of his pitches. His BB/9 in 2011 jumped up to 6.31 per 9 at AAA, compared to 1.61 per 9 at AA. Sadly, this is one of the best arms in Chicago’s system…

Impact Prospect: Addison Reed

Reed, a young man armed with a filthy slider and destined for the 9th inning of games, breezed through the minor leagues, going through A, High A, AA, AAA, and even a stint with the major league club, all in the 2011 season… and did not disappoint at any level.  He posted over 11Ks/9 at every level, and will be in the back of the bullpen from day one in 2012, challenging Matt Thornton throughout spring for the closer job. Reed has a chance to be great, but it does not bode well for the White Sox farm system to see their #1 prospect destined for being a closer.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Chris Sale

I wanted to go with Adam Dunn here, because I don’t believe he can be as utterly pitiful as he was in 2011 and everyone has written him off completely, but the White Sox are taking their great lefty arm and giving him every chance to succeed as a starter. Sale struck out 10 per 9 in 2011 in relief, using a blazing fastball (averaging 95.3 mph so far in his career), a two seamer at 94.2 mph on average, a slider, and a change up. I have liked Sale since he was drafted, was never sure if he would stick as a starter, and am excited to see the result this season. He is the best arm in the rotation, if not yet the best starting pitcher.

Biggest Concern: The Farm

The White Sox have the worst farm system in baseball, and it isn’t as if Kenny Williams has the excuse of having a stellar major league product on the field every day. Their best position player prospect struck out 35% of the time in A ball, and their best pitching prospect, Reed, is a reliever. The process of completely rebuilding a farm system can be a tough one, but they may get some assistance from some top 10 or so picks before long. Williams can’t decide if he wants to blow everything up and sell/rebuild, or if he thinks what he has can compete.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Alejandro De Aza

C – A.J. Pierzynski

SS – Alexei Ramirez

1B – Paul Konerko

DH – Adam Dunn

RF – Alex Rios

LF – Dayan Viciedo

3B – Brent Morel

2B – Gordon Beckham