2013 Detroit Tigers Season Preview

Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is the current class of the league, coming off an MVP campaign and the first triple crown in decades.  One reason to be cautious when overdosing on triple crown excitement: Cabrera was probably better offensively in 2010 and 2011 than 2012, the year most will remember as his best.  Miggy did not surprise anybody with his performance as a third baseman in 2012: He continued to absolutely knock the cover off of the ball, and his defensive ratings were below average.  That is the package.  While the defense is unlikely to improve anytime soon, that package still makes Cabrera one of the best players in baseball, without question.  Since 2010, Cabrera leads all players with a 171 wRC+ and a .604 SLG%, the only player to post a mark over .600 for the last three seasons.

His 44 home run campaign in 2012 set a new career high, and a career best HR/FB% of 23% led to that mark.  Cabrera is entering his age 30 season, so there is a chance that the 40 home run power could become the norm for a few more seasons.  Even if not, Miggy will remain one of the toughest outs in baseball, and continue forging a path toward the hall of fame.

Team Cy Young: Justin Verlander

The 2nd half of another supremely obvious MVP/Cy Young pairing, Verlander’s brilliance has given the Tigers two straight AL MVP award winners.  His 2012 was worthy of another Cy Young, and he just fell short, losing out to David Price.  Verlander has thrown over 200 innings each season since 2007, peaking over the last two seasons with 251 and 238 innings.  Given those totals plus pitching in the playoffs, you worry somewhat about wear and tear on the arm.  However, it seems that if we should trust anybody to consistently take the ball and not give it up to anybody in the bullpen, it’s Verlander.  The only frightening part about that: It seems like we were just recently saying the same thing about Roy Halladay.  So, nothing lasts forever, especially not pitcher arms, but for now we can sit back and enjoy.  He sports one of the best fastball/curveball combinations on planet earth, sitting around 94-96 mph and consistently reaching back to touch the upper nineties or triple digits late in games.

Fresh Face with Impact: Torii Hunter

The Tigers let Delmon Young go and brought Torii Hunter on board over the winter.  In 2012, Delmon Young was one of the worst players in baseball, sporting a wRC+ of 89 and compiling -0.9 WAR over the course of the season.  Hunter, on the other hand, had a wRC+ of 130, good enough for a +5 WAR season.  After posting UZR ratings in the negatives for 6 consecutive seasons, Hunter’s defense bounced back in 2012.  If that continues as a positive in Detroit, even with offensive regression, the 37 year old Hunter will hopefully continue to be a 2-3 win player as the sun sets on his career.  The main thing: He is a huge upgrade from Delmon Young.

Impact Prospect: Bruce Rondon

Rondon was recently sent back to the minors after being some people’s favorite to land the closer job in Spring Training.  I think it is the right move, as he currently has no idea where the ball is going, but it might not take too many blown saves combined with positive signs in AAA at the beginning of the year for the Tigers to call upon Rondon to close games.  He may not be the one that solves any closer issues.  I would like to see Benoit, Coke, Alburquerque, and Dotel get a shot at the job.  Lucky for the Tigers, the rotation is pretty awesome, which will hopefully place less of a burden on the bullpen.

Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez’s return in 2013 will be the equivalent of the Tigers adding one of the best available bats over an MLB off season.  He has consistently been a great hitter throughout his career, and hopefully he can bounce back from a knee injury that cost him all of 2012.  The Tigers lineup had added Torii Hunter to the 2 hole and switch-hitting Victor to the 5 hole.  In 2011, Martinez posted a .330/.380/.470 line, which is a scary thing to add to a lineup that already includes Cabrera and Fielder.

To 2013 and Beyond:

We already know about the superstar talent in Detroit.  They are the defending American League champion and have a great roster in a fairly easy division.  They got better over the winter.  The entire league’s ace in Verlander, and two sluggers in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  Detroit’s off season saw an influx of two good players in Hunter and Martinez, but the downside of that is counting on a 37 year old and 34 year old coming off of a knee injury.  It does not stop there in Detroit, though, with Austin Jackson hopefully finding more consistent offense, Alex Avila bouncing back, and one of Don Kelly, Andy Dirks, or Nick Castellanos emerging in left field.  The worst pitcher in the rotation is a 24 year old coming off a +3 win season in Rick Porcello, and they also have Drew Smyly (8.52 K/9, 2.99 BB/9 in 2012) just relaxing in the bullpen waiting to be called upon to help the rotation.  The bullpen has a chance to be frustrating, despite some good arms in the back end, but the starting pitching and the offense will cover most of those faults.  They are the heavy favorites to win the AL Central and one of the better teams in baseball.

Projected Lineup:

Austin Jackson – CF

Torii Hunter – RF

Miguel Cabrera – 3B

Prince Fielder – 1B

Victor Martinez – DH

Andy Dirks – LF

Jhonny Peralta – SS

Alex Avila – C

Omar Infante – 2B

2012 American League Predictions

AL MVP:

1. Evan Longoria
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Albert Pujols
4. Adrian Gonzalez

AL Cy Young:

1. David Price
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Justin Verlander
4. Jon Lester

AL ROY:

1. Matt Moore
2. Yu Darvish
3. Jesus Montero
4. Yoenis Cespedes
5. Addison Reed

AL East:

1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics

Two Wild Cards:

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Texas Rangers

2012 Detroit Tigers Preview

Team MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Miggy had what was likely the best season of his career in 2011, he is in the prime of his great career, and it’s easy to forget that he isn’t going to be thirty until April, 2013.

Walk rates each year since 2008: 8.2%, 9.9%, 13.7%, 15.7%

Strikeout rates for that time frame: 18.4%, 15.6%, 14.7%, 12.9%

A graph of Miggy’s K% trends over his career. Again, credit to Fangraphs. This stuff is awesome.

credit to http://www.fangraphs.com

108 walks to 89 strikeouts, Miggy’s numbers in 2011, is entering ridiculous mode. Although it’s crowded at the top (Braun, Bautista), Cabrera is certainly one of, if not the, best right handed hitters in the game.

The downside? Defense. Which really may become an issue for the Tigers. I saw Miguel Cabrera a couple of years ago during spring, and the man is just monstrous. The type of guy that, when you look at him, you automatically know he’s 1B or DH and just crushes the ball. He’s not fit to play third. I don’t think he has the range, the hands, or the arm to be anything but bad at third base. He was bad at the hot corner when he played it as a younger player, in better shape. He was bad defensively at first base, and a move to third certainly won’t cure that. Maybe it will force him to focus more on his defense and up the ante a tad. But… probably not.

I could go on and on, very easily, about how great Cabrera is/has been, but it’s painfully obvious from the numbers or simply watching him play. Let’s hope the defensive value doesn’t affect how he hits.

Team Cy Young: Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is, in fact, all that and a bag of chips. I fully expect more of the same from Verlander this year… not necessarily a repeat MVP, but a simply dominant season. It’s really an unfair combination of a guy having naturally ridiculous stuff paired with recognizing how great he can be and only wanting to improve upon that.

Righties hit over 40 points higher against Verlander compared to how lefties fared. The reason I’m not worried? Righties hit .215, Lefties hit .172…

The Tigers’ MVP and Cy Young combined were the easiest choices and probably the best tandem on one team in the majors.

Fresh face with impact: Prince Fielder

Well… yeah. The tigers pretty much shocked everybody in baseball, even those with great sources, when they landed Fielder. He joins Miguel Cabrera to form the best 3-4 in the major leagues (he was probably in that pairing a year ago, too, with Ryan Braun). He walked more than he struck out in 2011 for the first time in his career, and while he will never be the hitter for average that Miggy is, he knows his role (crush the damn baseball), and does it well.

Impact Prospect: Jacob Turner

Another one that I have owned and thus followed closely in random, prospect-driven dynasty leagues, I (like the Tigers) was not terribly excited to hear any news involving Jacob Turner and his shoulder. I don’t think Turner has ace potential, but I think he has solid #2 or #3 for a long time potential. He may perform well, but will never be the lights out, dominant starter that a true ace is. If the shoulder is fine, he will get thrown into the fire and be counted on throughout 2012.

Biggest sleeper or breakout candidate: Brennan Boesch

If you have ever played fantasy baseball, you have probably owned, dropped, loved, and hated Brennan Boesch. For starters, I think he has the right field job, hits in the top of the lineup, and runs with it. He will have good counting stats, hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder helps that, and is pretty much a pull-power left handed hitter. I think he can hit 25 home runs if he plays a full season.

Biggest Concern: Defense

The concerns for this organization, obviously, are winning the World Series. Two MVP caliber players already and adding a third tends to do that. So, on a smaller scale, I am interested to see how they handle Miguel Cabrera if he struggles tremendously with third base. Considering the fact that Victor Martinez isn’t filling up the DH spot and Delmon Young isn’t exactly all-world, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cabrera DH and Inge play 3B before too long. We shall see. The Tigers are going to be very good.

Projected Lineup:

CF – Austin Jackson

RF – Brennan Boesch

3B – Miguel Cabrera

1B – Prince Fielder

DH – Delmon Young

C – Alex Avila

SS – Jhonny Peralta

LF – Andy Dirks

2B – Ryan Raburn