Series Wrap Up

Offensive Totals  (Keep in mind, some higher WAR international players were left off to make a realistic bench)

College starters: 62.1                   College reserves: 35.5             Total: 97.6

High School starters: 46.9            High School reserves: 36.5       Total: 83.4

International starters: 47.9            International reserves: 28.8       Total: 76.7

Pitching Totals

College Starters: 31.6   College next5: 22.8   College bullpen: 18.9   Total: 73.3

High School Starters: 32.8    H.S. next5: 23.1       H.S. bullpen: 11.7   Total: 67.6

International Starters: 19.8      Int’l next5: 14.5       Int’l bullpen: 11     Total: 45.3

Takeaways?

The huge advantage, in my opinion, that College guys have over High School or International guys is their defensive value. Tulowitzki, Zimmerman, Longoria, Pedroia, Kinsler, Gardner… etc etc… actually benefited heavily from HAVING to go to college and not being the utter star that the high school guys were. I am not trying to say that a guy drafted out of high school is not required to improve and practice their defense, or that there aren’t great defensive guys on the list but a lot of times, it seems to be those in the ‘toolsy, freak athlete’ mold who are going to get drafted out of high school. The college guys? They may have been smaller, not had their defense highly valued out of high school in the draft, which led to 3+ years of college baseball to hone their craft… eventually even hitting a growth spurt which caused power to come later. A good example is Ryan Zimmerman. He was drafted as a great-glove okay-bat guy, and morphed into great-glove goodgood-bat guy.

Basically, I don’t think elite, gold-glove defense is something that teams are going after in the June draft, and especially not if they want to make an 18 year old a top round pick… but when you are valuing guys in the major leagues? Elite defense holds a ton of value, and I don’t know for sure if it was CAUSED by them having to go to college, but it certainly gives the college team the upper hand.

Oddly enough, some of the same instances may have happened with the pitching staffs, especially with the bullpen. Nobody is drafting a high school arm saying, “He has great stuff, but probably can’t go 7 innings, let’s jump on him as a closer.”  This may be why the top 10 High School starters and College starters are essentially the exact same (separated by 1.4 WAR).  Some great arms take longer to develop (Strasburg, Lincecum) and some are simply utter freaks from the start (Kershaw, Bumgarner)… but a guy like Papelbon or Bard was probably someone who had great stuff, needed the college years to improve stamina and secondary stuff, even started in college some, but recognized his role as a closer and, eventually, took that incredible stuff with him to the 9th inning.

Again, basically, if a pitcher drafted highly out of high school becomes a bullpen guy, it was an accident, a career that didn’t pan out as projected or fulfill its potential.  If Madison Bumgarner was moved to the closer role when his velocity was decreasing from inning overload, he may have been excellent, but it certainly wasn’t the Giants’ plan for him.

Elite defense and great 8th or 9th inning guys does not satisfy what teams are looking for out of an 18 year-old in the top rounds of the MLB draft. It does, however, account for the difference in value of these two all-star teams.

Would I guarantee that kids drafted out of college are going to be more valuable major league players than high school kids or international signees? No. Would I prefer one over the other? Not necessarily… I am totally fine with Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, and Troy Tulowitzki. The elite of the elite, it seems, doesn’t change a whole lot based on your pedigree. And, to be honest, the research put into these teams, as well as the possibilities after seeing them, are both simply great learning experiences and not meant to downgrade one group of players.

Let’s get these teams together and play a tournament. Make this happen.

2011 “College” All MLB (Pitching Staff)

Starting Pitchers:

Justin Verlander (7.0 WAR)

Cliff Lee (6.7 WAR)

Dan Haren (6.4 WAR)

C.J. Wilson (5.9 WAR)

Jered Weaver (5.6 WAR)

 

Next five: Matt Garza (5.0), Ian Kennedy (5.0), David Price (4.7), Tim Lincecum (4.4), Tim Hudson (3.7)

 

Uber-prospect: Stephen Strasburg

 

Bullpen:

Craig Kimbrel (3.2)

Jonathan Papelbon (3)

Sean Marshall (2.8)

David Robertson (2.8)

John Axford (1.9)

Daniel Bard (1.8)

J.J. Putz (1.7)

Jonny Venters (1.7)

 

Total 5 man rotation WAR: 31.6

Total ‘next five’ WAR: 22.8

Total (8 man) bullpen WAR: 18.9

2011 “College” All MLB Team (Offense)

Starters:

C – Matt Wieters (5.7 WAR)

1B – Mark Teixeira (4.2 WAR)

2B – Dustin Pedroia (8.0 WAR)

SS – Troy Tulowitzki (6.3 WAR)

3B – Evan Longoria (6.1 WAR)

LF – Ryan Braun (7.8 WAR)

CF – Jacoby Ellsbury (9.4 WAR)

RF – Alex Gordon (6.9 WAR)

DH – Ian Kinsler (7.7 WAR)

Lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
2. Dustin Pedroia (R)
3. Ryan Braun (R)
4. Mark Teixeira (S)
5. Troy Tulowitzki (R)
6. Evan Longoria (R)
7. Ian Kinsler (R)
8. Matt Wieters (S)
9. Alex Gordon (L)

Bench:

LF – Brett Gardner

CF – Curtis Granderson

1B – Lance Berkman

2B – Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley

3B – Ryan Zimmerman

UTIL – Ben Zobrist

C – Buster Posey

 

Uber-prospect: Bryce Harper

 

Total 2011 WAR from starters: 62.1

Total 2011 WAR from (8) reserves: 35.5

Series Introduction

The following posts in this category were brought about by my friend and I having a friendly, but animated, discussion regarding High School v. College talent. We have named random players that would have been on our respective squads, and eventually, I decided to delve into it a bit more.

The posts will contrast the position players as well as the pitching staffs of the “all-” high school, college, or international teams based on 2011 Wins Above Replacement ratings (WAR ratings courtesy of Fangraphs).

Admittedly, this is an imperfect ‘science’ and overall evaluation of the talent base, but it does put into perspective who was grabbed from where, and may give some insight into how equal these teams actually are.

Some of the pitfalls are the small sample sizes in 2011 due to injury (i.e. Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright?), the fact that 2011 could very easily have been someone’s peak year (Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury?), or, just as easily, someone’s down year.

The series is meant to:1) recognize some great talent from every path 2) give some perspective and see who actually posted the highest WAR and 3) have some fun making the lineups with ridiculously loaded teams.

The series is not meant to: Intimate that this list or the total team WAR is an end-all and proves one route is far better than the other… it is simply fun to explore.