Team MVP: Mike Trout
I will explain in a bit why this pick is a little bit weird, but for now, Mr. Trout. He is really, really good at baseballing. I think he regresses to the point of being in this galaxy, maybe even on this planet, this season, but even that will be one of the top seasons in the American League. The average and slugging are where I think we see regression, while steals tick up a notch due to total playing time, landing somewhere between 50 and 60.
My thought process behind the power regression: Trout hit 6 more home run last season in 639 plate appearances (30) than he had in 1423 minor league plate appearances (24). He is a big, stout kid, but the swing itself has never screamed “30+ HR guy” to me. There are reasons almost everybody was surprised by the power production in 2012: a) He never produced those power numbers in the minors, posting 12 in his best minor league season and b) He might just be better at, well, everything, than most thought. Mike Trout was out of his damn mind last season. It will probably be the best season of his career. And that is totally fine.
Team Cy Young: Jered Weaver
Weaver Ks/9 over the past three seasons:
2010: 9.35
2011: 7.56
2012: 6.77
Weaver xFIPs over the past three seasons:
2012: 3.32
2011: 3.80
2012: 4.18
There are plenty of reasons to worry about Weaver. Weaver’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 90 mph in 2010 to 88 mph in 2012. His SwingingStrike% has dropped from 11.2% in 2010 to 8.5% in 2012. He suffered an injury last season, his first season under 200 innings since 2008. It calms the mind somewhat to think about 2010 simply as the peak year of his career, leaving room for inevitable regression. The ballpark is still great for him, and a brilliant defensive outfield of Trout/Bourjos/Hamilton will certainly help a pitcher like Weaver, whose flyball percentage of 46.7% is the 4th highest in baseball over the last three seasons. He will either continue to decline, which is very worrisome for half of the fans in Los Angeles, or he will land somewhere between 2011 and 2012. Time will tell.
Fresh Face with Impact: Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton’s much ballyhooed tenure in Texas came to a bitter end. He seemed at odds with Nolan Ryan, and, at times, at odds with Josh Hamilton. He was on a roll early in the season, hitting .395 in April and .344 in May. The triple crown whispers quickly disappeared when Hamilton posted a .223 average in June and a miserable .177 average in July. Watching the approach and struggle was much more painful than simply looking at the numbers. Hamilton looked lost at the plate for long stretches, leading to a career high 25.5 K%. The season he had in 2012 coupled with a Rangers collapse leads fans to worry more than normal about a .285/.354/.577 slash line. He is forced, once again, to prove consistency and focus. Is that fair? Maybe not.
But he does not have to be first half of 2012 Josh Hamilton. Or 2010 Josh Hamilton. Ultimately, he needs to be “overall 2012” Josh Hamilton, post a great slash line, a wRC+ in the top 30 of the league, and refocus efforts in right field. He is the worst defensively of the three Angels outfielders, but his athleticism and great arm still give him a chance to be a plus defender in 2013. I like him this season more than ZiPS projections do, but, again, he will have to prove it. He has before.
Impact Prospect: Nick Maronde
If Tommy Hanson gets hurt (or stays broken), Barry Enright or Garrett Richards are likely the next men up in the rotation. However, Maronde jumped up from double-A and saw time in the majors in 2012, making him a likely candidate if there is disastrous pitching attrition on the Angels’ roster. He could help the Angels bullpen in 2013 as a LOOGY, but more seasoning as a starter might be the goal of the organization after they acquired both starting and relief pitching help in the offseason.
Biggest Sleeper or Breakout Candidate: Peter Bourjos
Bourjos is brilliant in the outfield. That has never been the problem. He did not force Mike Trout to left field, but he certainly made the move painless (well, almost painless). Bourjos posting a 113 wRC+ in 2011 was considered a breakout by most, leading to disappointment when the offense essentially disappeared in 2012. The 25 year old has such speed on the basepaths and great defensive value that anything above average at the plate will make him a +4-5 win player.
When the lineup turns over to Pujols and Hamilton while Bourjos and Trout are on the basepaths, quickly tune your MLB.TV feed to Los Angeles, enjoy, and keep the pitcher’s family in your thoughts.
To 2013 and Beyond:
The Mike Trout team MVP selection is odd because there is a good chance I pick Albert Pujols as my AL MVP. I think he will have a great year, and, if the Angels are in the playoffs, voters will love the “Pujols adjusted to the American League and led this team to the playoffs!” narrative. That line of thinking combined with Trout regression and Angels playoffs would lead to a breeding ground of strange MVP interpretation. It might be annoying or unjustifiable, but I can see it now…
Long term, the concerns are Jered Weaver’s level of performance and Mike Trout’s career as an Angel. However, the Angels are a team set up to win right now. The lineup after Trout/Pujols/Hamilton is solid, if underwhelming, and any sort of breakout from Aybar or Bourjos will make the team incredibly fun to watch. They are relying heavily on a worrisome Weaver and Hanson, plus an average Blanton and Saunders, but the outfield defense and ballpark will help all of these pitchers immensely.
Projected Lineup:
Mike Trout – LF
Erick Aybar – SS
Albert Pujols – 1B
Josh Hamilton – RF
Mark Trumbo – DH
Howie Kendrick – 2B
Alberto Callaspo – 3B
Chris Iannetta – C
Peter Bourjos – CF
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